What is humanity best kept secret
statisticsWhen Conspiracies blow up
In order to keep a conspiracy secret, as few people as possible should know about it. Because the more people know about it, the greater the risk that the conspiracy will be exposed.
Oxford University mathematician David Grimes recognized this problem, wondered a little about it, and used it as a starting point to calculate the average shelf life of a secret. His calculations are based on secrets that have been revealed in recent years.
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His findings applied to the alleged climate change lie:
Around 405,000 people around the world are involved in the issue. If the theses about climate change were a conspiracy, i.e. a lie, they would mathematically have been exposed after 3.7 years. Conclusion: Since there has been research on climate change for more than 3.7 years, we would know if everything were a lie.
If you only count among the narrow circle of scientists who deal with climate change, there are around 30,000 initiates. In this case, the supposed climate lie could remain undetected for 26.77 years. In this case, we would not know anything about it if climate change were actually invented. However, again, it cannot be assumed that something like climate change will only remain in a small circle.
"Three exposed conspiracies as data are not sufficient, because for a proper statistical calibration you would actually need the values of previously unexplored conspiracies."
Michael Gessat, DRadio Wissen
The data that Grimes evaluated is actually insufficient to evaluate it statistically. The scientist also knows that his equation won't help convince a staunch conspiracy fanatic otherwise.
Grimes says: There are definitely conspiracies. Just not really big ones that last forever. The likelihood that one of the parties will mess up is simply too high.
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